{
  "api": "kangbo-timing-signals",
  "version": "1.1",
  "asof": "2026-10-07",
  "calibrated": "2026-Q4",
  "cycle": {
    "wave": "第五次康波",
    "phase": "萧条段·转换期",
    "phase_conf": 75,
    "next": "第六波回升段，AI为主导产业，确认窗口约2029-2030",
    "scenarios": {
      "A": "基准：2027-28 AI盈利兑现启动、商品二次探底后企稳、地产全体回稳",
      "B": "减速：油价通胀成本长期化、美利率高位顽固，黄金+现金加码、权益降档",
      "C": "加速：新产能周期启动证据+全球库存同向上行，商品/权益提前升配"
    }
  },
  "quadrant_rules": {
    "HOLD": "当下热 × 未来升 = 持有·回调加",
    "EXIT": "当下热 × 未来降 = 提前退出",
    "AMBUSH": "当下冷 × 未来升 = 左侧埋伏·分批",
    "AVOID": "当下冷 × 未来降 = 回避",
    "note": "股价对周期先行定价但无固定提前量，执行以 confirm 信号为准"
  },
  "assets": [
    {
      "id": "ai_tech",
      "name": "AI算力·科技",
      "stocks": "半导体/算力·云/电力设备/光模块",
      "now": { "state": "热·建设期", "conf": 65 },
      "next": { "direction": "up", "window": "2029后放量", "why": "第六波主导产业" },
      "signal": "HOLD",
      "action": "持有 · 回调加 · 唯一可重仓",
      "confirm": "退档信号：巨头下修capex、算力租赁价跳水（思科化）"
    },
    {
      "id": "metals",
      "name": "有色·资源",
      "stocks": "铜/铝/稀土/铀/矿业",
      "now": { "state": "温·波段中后段", "conf": 65 },
      "next": { "direction": "up", "window": "约2030启动", "why": "新产能周期" },
      "signal": "AMBUSH",
      "action": "左侧埋伏 · 回调分批攒底仓",
      "confirm": "滞胀＋农产品接棒领涨＝波段顶，届时止盈"
    },
    {
      "id": "gold",
      "name": "黄金·贵金属",
      "stocks": "黄金股/贵金属/矿企",
      "now": { "state": "热·萧条持有期", "conf": 88 },
      "next": { "direction": "down", "window": "回升确认后趋弱", "why": "萧条段避险资产在回升期机会成本上升" },
      "signal": "EXIT",
      "action": "提前退出 · 2029起分批止盈",
      "confirm": "美实际利率>2.5%且央行停止购金"
    },
    {
      "id": "oil",
      "name": "原油·能源",
      "stocks": "油气开采/油服/储运",
      "now": { "state": "温·溢价衰减中", "conf": 72 },
      "next": { "direction": "down", "window": "溢价衰减+供给修复", "why": "地缘溢价类行情不持续" },
      "signal": "EXIT",
      "action": "提前退出 · 绝不追高",
      "confirm": "海峡通行恢复／停火（运输量回升＋沙特官价低位＝溢价衰减已启动，红海续燃则反复）"
    },
    {
      "id": "cyclical_mfg",
      "name": "顺周期·大制造",
      "stocks": "化工/钢铁/机械（反内卷）",
      "now": { "state": "冷·产能出清", "conf": 60 },
      "next": { "direction": "up", "window": "涨价逻辑+新周期需求", "why": "产能出清后价格修复" },
      "signal": "AMBUSH",
      "action": "左侧埋伏 · 分批",
      "confirm": "PPI同比转正且环比连续上行"
    },
    {
      "id": "consumer_med",
      "name": "大消费·医药",
      "stocks": "食品饮料/家电/中药/创新药",
      "now": { "state": "冷·财富效应未复", "conf": 52 },
      "next": { "direction": "up", "window": "回升期", "why": "消费与城镇化提质" },
      "signal": "AMBUSH",
      "action": "左侧埋伏 · 先等信号",
      "confirm": "房价全体回稳＋收入预期改善"
    },
    {
      "id": "reits_chain",
      "name": "地产链·REITs",
      "stocks": "经纪/建材/公募REITs",
      "now": { "state": "冷·筑底分化", "conf": 66 },
      "next": { "direction": "up", "window": "2026-30", "why": "下一轮弱周期" },
      "signal": "AMBUSH",
      "action": "左侧埋伏 · 仅指数化",
      "confirm": "全体城市量价回稳；一线独涨仍按B浪对待"
    },
    {
      "id": "financials",
      "name": "金融·券商",
      "stocks": "银行/证券/保险",
      "now": { "state": "中性偏冷", "conf": 58 },
      "next": { "direction": "up", "window": "转换段", "why": "成交与利差修复" },
      "signal": "AMBUSH",
      "action": "左侧埋伏 · 分批",
      "confirm": "成交持续放大＋长端利率维持高位"
    },
    {
      "id": "dividend",
      "name": "高股息·红利·公用",
      "stocks": "煤炭/电力/铁路/运营商",
      "now": { "state": "热·资产荒受益", "conf": 58 },
      "next": { "direction": "flat", "window": "回升后", "why": "机会成本上升" },
      "signal": "WATCH",
      "action": "持有不加仓",
      "confirm": "实际利率趋势性上行则降档"
    },
    {
      "id": "cash_bond",
      "name": "现金·债券·存单",
      "stocks": "货基/短债/存单/利率债",
      "now": { "state": "热·保值第一", "conf": 72 },
      "next": { "direction": "down", "window": "回升确认后", "why": "风险资产接棒" },
      "signal": "EXIT",
      "action": "保留应急层 · 其余逐档移仓",
      "confirm": "第六波回升成立"
    }
  ],
  "signal_track_record": [
    { "sig": "黄金 EXIT", "since": "2026-Q3", "ret": "-4.1%（4349→4169）", "verdict": "兑现中 · 回落", "cls": "good" },
    { "sig": "AI算力 HOLD", "since": "2026-Q3", "ret": "纳指十月新高", "verdict": "兑现中 · capex延续", "cls": "good" },
    { "sig": "地产链 AMBUSH", "since": "2026-Q3", "ret": "一线新房转涨/三线仍弱", "verdict": "方向接近 · 继续观察", "cls": "good" }
  ],
  "basis": "股价对经济周期先行定价（经验上领先实体拐点约两个季度）+ 周期阶段×资产轮动（时钟框架）+ 技术范式建设期过热→兑现/出清规律",
  "disclaimer": "周期位置为模型判断，置信度为校准值；提前反应无固定提前量，一切以确认信号为准。本接口为慢变量择时输入，须与估值、趋势、风控合用，不构成投资建议。数据每季度校准一次，更新记录见 calibrated 字段。"
}